Comparing maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods for fitting hidden Markov models to multi-state capture-recapture data of invasive carp in the Illinois River.

Biologically unrealistic estimates may be a sign of poor model convergence. In contrast, consistent convergence behavior across approaches can increase the credibility of a model. Estimates of movement probabilities can strongly influence the predicted population dynamics of a system. Therefore, thoroughly assessing results from HMMs is important when evaluating potential management strategies, particularly for invasive species.