The impact of an ageing population on the required hospital capacity: results from forecast analysis on administrative data.

Ageing will, if no drastic policy actions are taken, impact the required hospital capacity. This can initially (by 2025) be more or less controlled by further reductions in length of stay. From 2030, it is expected that the required hospital bed capacity will increase exponentially with a pronounced shift between general acute care beds towards geriatric and chronic care beds. If policy makers want to revert this trend, substantial investments in hospital alternatives will be required.