Baseline Measures of Physical Activity and Function Do Not Predict Future Fall Incidence in Sedentary Older Adults: A Prospective Cohort Study.

Physical activity (PA) and physical function (PF) are modifiable risk factors for falls in older adults, but their ability to predict future fall incidence is unclear. The purpose of this study was to determine the predictive ability of baseline measures of PA, PF, and lower limb strength on future falls. A total of 104 participants underwent baseline assessments of PA, PF, and lower limb strength. Falls were monitored prospectively for 12 months. Eighteen participants fell at least once during the 12-month follow-up. Participants recorded almost exclusively sedentary levels of activity. PA, PF, and lower limb strength did not differ between fallers and nonfallers. Twelve participants, who reported a minor musculoskeletal injury in the past 6 months, experienced a fall. The results of this study suggest that in a cohort of highly functioning, sedentary older adults, PA does not distinguish fallers from nonfallers and that the presence of a recent musculoskeletal injury appears to be a possible risk factor for falling.