Estimating the global conservation status of more than 15,000 Amazonian tree species.
Hans Ter SteegeNigel C A PitmanTimothy J KilleenWilliam F LauranceCarlos A PeresJuan Ernesto GuevaraRafael P SalomãoCarolina Volkmer de CastilhoIêda Leão AmaralFrancisca Dionízia de Almeida MatosLuiz de Souza CoelhoWilliam E MagnussonOliver L PhillipsDiogenes de Andrade Lima FilhoMarcelo de Jesus Veiga CarimMariana Victória IrumeMaria Pires MartinsJean-François MolinoDaniel SabatierFlorian WittmannDairon Cárdenas LópezJosé Renan da Silva GuimarãesAbel Monteagudo MendozaPercy Núñez VargasAngelo Gilberto ManzattoNeidiane Farias Costa ReisJohn TerborghKatia Regina CasulaJuan Carlos MonteroTed R FeldpauschEuridice N Honorio CoronadoAlvaro Javier Duque MontoyaCharles Eugene ZartmanBonifacio MostacedoRodolfo VasquezRafael L AssisMarcelo Brilhante MedeirosMarcelo Fragomeni SimonAna AndradeJosé Luís Campana CamargoSusan G W LauranceHenrique Eduardo Mendonça NascimentoBeatriz S MarimonBen-Hur MarimonFlavia R C CostaNatalia TarghettaIma Célia Guimarães VieiraRoel BrienenHernán CastellanosJoost F DuivenvoordenHugo F MogollónMaria Teresa Fernandez PiedadeGerardo A Aymard CJames A ComiskeyGabriel DamascoNállarett DávilaRoosevelt García-VillacortaPablo Roberto Stevenson DiazAlberto VincentiniThaise EmilioCarolina LevisJuliana SchiettiPriscila SouzaAlfonso AlonsoFrancisco DallmeierLeandro Valle FerreiraDavid NeillAlejandro Araujo-MurakamiLuzmila ArroyoFernanda Antunes CarvalhoFernanda Coelho SouzaDario Dantas AmaralRogerio GribelBruno Garcia LuizeMarcelo Petrati PansonatoEduardo VenticinquePaul FineMarisol ToledoChris BaralotoCarlos CerónJulien EngelTerry W HenkelEliana M JimenezPaul MaasMaria Cristina Peñuela MoraPascal PetronelliJuan David Cardenas RevillaMarcos SilveiraJuliana StroppRaquel Thomas-CaesarTim R BakerDoug DalyMarcos Ríos ParedesNaara Ferreira da SilvaAlfredo FuentesPeter Møller JørgensenJochen SchöngartMiles R SilmanNicolás Castaño ArboledaBruno Barçante Ladvocat CintraFernando Cornejo ValverdeAnthony Di FioreJuan Fernando PhillipsTinde R van AndelPatricio von HildebrandEdelcilio Marques BarbosaLuiz Carlos de Matos BonatesDeborah de CastroEmanuelle de Sousa FariasTherany GonzalesJean-Louis GuillaumetBruce HoffmanYadvinder MalhiIres Paula de Andrade MirandaAdriana PrietoAgustín RudasAdemir R RuschelNatalino SilvaCésar I A VelaVincent Antoine VosEgleé L ZentStanford ZentAngela CanoMarcelo Trindade NascimentoAlexandre A de OliveiraHirma Ramirez-AnguloJosé Ferreira RamosRodrigo O SierraMilton TiradoMaria Natalia Umaña MedinaGeertje van der HeijdenEmilio Vilanova TorreCorine F VriesendorpOphelia WangKenneth R YoungClaudia BaiderHenrik BalslevNatalia de CastroWilliam Farfan-RiosCid FerreiraCasimiro MendozaItalo MesonesArmando Torres-LezamaLigia Estela Urrego GiraldoDaniel VillarroelRoderick ZagtMiguel N AlexiadesKarina Garcia-CabreraLionel HernandezIsau Huamantupa-ChuquimacoWilliam MillikenWalter Palacios CuencaSusamar PansiniDaniela PaulettoFreddy Ramirez ArevaloAdeilza Felipe SampaioElvis H Valderrama SandovalLuis Valenzuela GamarraPublished in: Science advances (2015)
Estimates of extinction risk for Amazonian plant and animal species are rare and not often incorporated into land-use policy and conservation planning. We overlay spatial distribution models with historical and projected deforestation to show that at least 36% and up to 57% of all Amazonian tree species are likely to qualify as globally threatened under International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List criteria. If confirmed, these results would increase the number of threatened plant species on Earth by 22%. We show that the trends observed in Amazonia apply to trees throughout the tropics, and we predict that most of the world's >40,000 tropical tree species now qualify as globally threatened. A gap analysis suggests that existing Amazonian protected areas and indigenous territories will protect viable populations of most threatened species if these areas suffer no further degradation, highlighting the key roles that protected areas, indigenous peoples, and improved governance can play in preventing large-scale extinctions in the tropics in this century.