The association between respiratory tract infection incidence and localised meningitis epidemics: an analysis of high-resolution surveillance data from Burkina Faso.

Meningococcal meningitis epidemics in the African meningitis belt consist of localised meningitis epidemics (LME) that reach attack proportions of 1% within a few weeks. A meningococcal serogroup A conjugate vaccine was introduced in meningitis belt countries from 2010 on, but LME due to other serogroups continue to occur. The mechanisms underlying LME are poorly understood, but an association with respiratory pathogens has been hypothesised. We analysed national routine surveillance data in high spatial resolution (health centre level) from 13 districts in Burkina Faso, 2004-2014. We defined LME as a weekly incidence rate of suspected meningitis ≥75 per 100,000 during ≥2 weeks; and high incidence episodes of respiratory tract infections (RTI) as the 5th quintile of monthly incidences. We included 10,334 health centre month observations during the meningitis season (January-May), including 85 with LME, and 1891 (1820) high-incidence episodes of upper (lower) RTI. In mixed effects logistic regression accounting for spatial structure, and controlling for dust conditions, relative air humidity and month, the occurrence of LME was strongly associated with high incidence episodes of upper (odds ratio 23.9, 95%-confidence interval 3.1-185.3), but not lower RTI. In the African meningitis belt, meningitis epidemics may be triggered by outbreaks of upper RTI.