Both hemispheric influenza vaccine recommendations would have missed near half of the circulating viruses in Madagascar.

Our results showed matching with the Northern Hemisphere vaccine barely above 50%, even in the more favourable scenario. This suggests that if implemented, routine influenza vaccines would not provide an optimal protection against half of the influenza strains circulating in any epidemic season of Madagascar. We suggest that this limitation in influenza vaccine efficacy deserves greater attention, and should be considered in cost/benefit analyses of national influenza immunization programmes.