Risk factors for mortality among patients admitted with upper gastrointestinal bleeding at a tertiary hospital: a prospective cohort study.

A total of 170 patients with UGIB were included. Males accounted for the majority (71.2%). Median age of the study population was 40.0 years. Chronic liver disease was present in 30.6% of study patients. The most common cause of UGIB among the 86 patients who underwent endoscopy was oesophageal varices (57%), followed by peptic ulcer disease (18%) and gastritis (10%). Mortality occurred in 57 patients (33.5%) and was significantly higher in patients with high white blood cell count (HR 2.45, p 0.011), raised serum alanine aminotransferase (HR 4.22, p 0.016), raised serum total bilirubin (HR 5.79, p 0.008) and lack of an endoscopic procedure done (HR 4.40, p <0.001). Rebleeding was reported in 12 patients (7.1%) and readmission due to UGIB in 4 patients (2.4%) CONCLUSIONS: Oesophageal varices was the most common cause of UGIB. One-third of patients admitted with upper gastrointestinal bleeding died within 60 days of admission, signifying a high burden. Rebleeding and readmission rates were low. A high WBC count, raised serum ALT, raised serum total bilirubin and a lack of endoscopy were independent predictors of mortality. These findings can be used to risk-stratify patients who may benefit from early and more aggressive management.