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High variability in transmission of SARS-CoV-2 within households and implications for control.

Damon J A TothAlexander B BeamsLindsay T KeeganYue ZhangTom GreeneBrian OrleansNathan SeegertAdam LooneyStephen C AlderMatthew H Samore
Published in: PloS one (2021)
Our findings suggest that crude estimates of household secondary attack rate based on serology data without accounting for false positive tests may underestimate the true average transmissibility, even when test specificity is high. Our finding of potential high variability (overdispersion) in transmissibility of infected individuals is consistent with characterizing SARS-CoV-2 transmission being largely driven by superspreading from a minority of infected individuals. Mitigation efforts targeting large households and other locations where many people congregate indoors might curb continued spread of the virus.
Keyphrases
  • sars cov
  • respiratory syndrome coronavirus
  • climate change
  • machine learning
  • risk assessment
  • electronic health record
  • cancer therapy
  • quality improvement
  • artificial intelligence
  • data analysis