Ecological drivers of flower-leaf sequences: aridity and proxies for pollinator attraction select for flowering-first in the American plums.

Across temperate forests, many tree species produce flowers before their leaves emerge. This flower-leaf phenological sequence, known as hysteranthy, is generally described as an adaptation for wind pollination. However, this explanation does not address why hysteranthy is also common in biotically pollinated taxa. We quantified flower-leaf sequence variation in the American plums (Prunus, subg. Prunus sect. Prunocerasus), a clade of insect-pollinated trees, using herbaria specimens and Bayesian hierarchical modeling. We tested two common, but rarely interrogated hypotheses - that hysteranthy confers aridity tolerance and/or pollinator visibility - by modeling the associations between hysteranthy and related traits. To understand how these phenology-trait associations were sensitive to taxonomic scale and flower-leaf sequence classification, we then extended these analyses to all Prunus species in North America. Our findings across two taxonomic levels support the hypotheses that hysteranthy may help temporally partition hydraulic demand to reduce water stress and increase pollinator visibility - thereby reducing selective pressure on inflorescence size. Our results provide foundational insights into the evolution of flower-leaf sequences in the genus Prunus, with implications for understanding these patterns in biotically pollinated plants in general. Our approach suggests a path to advance these hypotheses to other clades, but teasing out drivers fully will require new experiments.