Long-term change in bioconstruction potential of Maldivian coral reefs following extreme climate anomalies.

Global climate change has increased the frequency and intensity of extreme heat anomalies and consequent mass coral bleaching events. Long-term dynamics of hard coral cover, bioconstruction potential, carbonate deposition, and reef accretion was monitored over a 20-year period on Maldivian coral reefs in order to investigate the effects of high-temperature anomalies on coral reef accretion and their recovery potential. Changes experienced by shallow reefs between 1997 and 2017 were evaluated by considering five different bioconstructional guilds and the BioConstruction Potential index (BCP), a proxy for the constructional capacity of reefs. Abnormally high temperatures in 1998 and 2016 led to severe coral bleaching and consequent mortality, especially of the primary builders. Renewed carbonate deposition was not documented until 2-3 years after the bleaching, and 6-9 years passed until constratal (i.e., low relief) growth was achieved. Finally, 14-16 years were required to reach accretion rates high enough to ensure superstratal (i.e., high relief) growth. Coral mortality in the Maldives during the 2016 bleaching event was lower than in 1998, and the initial recovery was faster and occurred via a different trajectory than in 1998. Rising levels of anthropogenic carbon emissions are predicted to accelerate sea level rise and trigger severe coral bleaching events at least twice per decade, a frequency that will (a) prevent coral recovery, (b) nullify reef accretion, and consequently, (c) result in the drowning of Maldivian reefs under the worst climate projections.