Modeling long-distance dispersal of emerald ash borer in European Russia and prognosis of spread of this pest to neighboring countries within next 5 years.

The forestry services of neighboring countries probably have about 5 years to prepare for the invasion of this pest, but regular surveys are necessary, since the pest can appear at any time. The case considered shows that the simple approach based on a fat-tailed kernel and just one parameter-pairwise distance between cities-can be used for modeling long-distance dispersal of alien pests of urban plantations.