On the Risk of Ruin in a SIS Type Epidemic.

The paper deals with the problem of possible ruin when providing insurance coverage for an epidemic. The model studied is an SIS type epidemic which generalizes the well-known logistic model. Contractually, the premiums are paid by susceptible people while the care costs are reimbursed to infected people via an annuity or a lump-sum benefit. Our goal is to determine the distribution of the main statistics of the ruin when it occurs during the epidemic. The case where the reserve alternates between normal and epidemic episodes is also discussed using a Brownian modeling of the reserve. Finally, some of the results are illustrated for two particular SIS epidemic models.