Consequences of phenological shifts and a compressed breeding period in Magellanic penguins.

Phenological shifts may ameliorate negative effects of climate change or create carryover effects and mismatches that decrease fitness. Identifying how phenological shifts affect performance is critical for understanding how individuals and populations will respond to climate change, but requires long-term, longitudinal data. Using 34 yr of data from the Magellanic penguin (Spheniscus magellanicus) colony at Punta Tombo, Argentina, we examined the consequences of the delayed onset of breeding (i.e., arrival and egg-laying dates) that has occurred at the colony since 1983. To understand how the delay propagates through the rest of the reproductive cycle, we identified phenological trends in hatch and fledge dates. Median hatch dates were 0.29 d later each year, amounting to a 10-d shift over the course of the study. Median fledge dates did not shift over the 34-yr period, however, thus shortening the median nestling period duration by 14%. We tested several predictions regarding performance outcomes of the compressed nestling period, finding that later-hatched chicks fledged significantly younger than earlier-hatched chicks, and that younger fledglings left the colony with smaller bills and with more chick down. Interestingly, although younger chicks fledged significantly lighter and in worse body condition than older fledglings early in the study, this trend reversed over time, with younger chicks actually fledging heavier and in better body condition in more recent years. Smaller and lighter fledglings were less likely to recruit to the colony as adults. We find that delayed breeding has significantly compressed nestling periods at Punta Tombo, influencing chick growth and fledgling condition. These findings highlight the importance of studying phenology across multiple life events to understand the consequences of phenological shifts for organismal fitness.