Prognostic modeling of cutaneous melanoma stage I patients using cancer registry data identifies subsets with very-low melanoma mortality.

Although melanoma is the most serious skin cancer, most melanoma patients have high chances of survival. There is evidence that some lesions diagnosed as melanoma would never have caused symptoms or death, a phenomenon known as overdiagnosis. In this study, we used cancer registry data to identify a subset of early-stage melanoma patients with almost no melanoma deaths. Using two statistical approaches, we identified patients with <1% risk of dying from melanoma in 7 years. Such patients tended to be younger with minimal invasion into the skin. We also identified a very small patient subset with higher mortality risk.