Coastal Dune Vegetation Dynamism and Anthropogenic-Induced Transitions in the Mexican Caribbean during the Last Decade.

In the Mexican Caribbean, environmental changes, hydrometeorological events, and anthropogenic activities promote dynamism in the coastal vegetation cover associated with the dune; however, their pace and magnitude remain uncertain. Using Landsat 7 imagery, spatial and temporal changes in coastal dune vegetation were estimated for the 2011-2020 period in the Sian Ka'an Biosphere Reserve. The SAVI index revealed cover changes at different magnitudes and paces at the biannual, seasonal, and monthly timeframes. Climatic seasons had a significant influence on vegetation cover, with increases in cover during northerlies (SAVI: p = 0.000), while the topographic profile of the dune was relevant for structure. Distance-based multiple regressions and redundancy analysis showed that temperature had a significant effect ( p < 0.05) on SAVI patterns, whereas precipitation showed little influence ( p > 0.05). The Mann-Kendall tendency test indicated high dynamism in vegetation loss and recovery with no defined patterns, mostly associated with anthropogenic disturbance. High-density vegetation such as mangroves, palm trees, and shrubs was the most drastically affected, although a reduction in bare soil was also recorded. This study demonstrated that hydrometeorological events and climate variability in the long term have little influence on vegetation dynamism. Lastly, it was observed that anthropogenic activities promoted vegetation loss and transitions; however, the latter were also linked to recoveries in areas with pristine environments, relevant for tourism.