Population Pharmacokinetic Models for Direct Oral Anticoagulants: A Systematic Review and Clinical Appraisal Using Exposure Simulation.

Available data have shown an association between direct oral anticoagulant (DOAC) plasma concentration and clinical, particularly bleeding, events. Factors that may influence DOAC plasma concentration are therefore the focus of particular attention. Population pharmacokinetic (PopPK) analyses can help in identifying such factors while providing predictive models. The main aim of the present study was to identify all the PopPK models to date for the four most frequently used DOACs (dabigatran, apixaban, rivaroxaban, and edoxaban). The secondary aim was to use these models to simulate different DOAC plasma concentration-time profiles in relevant clinical scenarios. The results of our model-based simulations confirm the clinical relevance of the known major factors influencing DOAC exposure and support the current approved dose adaptation, at least for atrial fibrillation. They also highlight how the accumulation of covariates, not currently considered for dose adaptation due to their seemingly minor influence on DOAC exposure, lead to supratherapeutic blood concentrations and could thus enhance the risk of major bleeding. The present results therefore question DOAC dose adaptation in the presence of these covariates, such as drug-drug interaction or genotypes, alongside the known existing covariates. As the overall effect of accumulation of several covariates could be difficult to apprehend for the clinicians, PopPK modeling could represent an interesting approach for informed precision dosing and to improve personalized prescription of DOACs.