We present a model and simulation for predicting the detected signal of a fluorescence-based optical biosensor built from optofluidic waveguides. Typical applications include flow experiments to determine pathogen concentrations in a biological sample after tagging relevant DNA or RNA sequences. An overview of the biosensor geometry and fabrication processes is presented. The basis for the predictive model is also outlined. The model is then compared to experimental results for three different biosensor designs. The model is shown to have similar signal statistics as physical tests, illustrating utility as a pre-fabrication design tool and as a predictor of detection sensitivity.