Predicting variceal bleeding in patients with biliary atresia.

Background/aims: Variceal bleeding is the main cause of morbidity and mortality in children with portal hypertension and biliary atresia. The aim of this study is to predict high-risk varices by analyzing various clinical factors, thus improve prognosis of patients with biliary atresia.Methods: A total of 157 patients with biliary atresia who underwent Kasai portoentrostomy were enrolled in a single center. Clinical data including laboratory values, endoscopic findings and values of transient elastography (FibroScan®) were analyzed retrospectively.Results: The bleeding group and the non-bleeding group showed statistically significant differences in several variables; The FibroScan® value (HR 1.05, 95% CI (1.03-1.07), p  <  .01) was higher in the bleeding group. The bleeding group had values of lower albumin after 3 months of operation (HR 0.28, 95% CI (0.11-0.73), p  =  .01), higher bilirubin after 3 months of operation (total bilirubin: HR 1.18, 95% CI (1.04-1.33), p  =  .01), (direct bilirubin: HR 1.21, 95% CI (1.05-1.41), p  =  .01). Gastric varix (HR 4.10, 95% CI (1.62-10.36), p  <  .01) was more frequent in the bleeding group. And the presence of red sign was also predictive of bleeding. The FibroScan® cut-off value with the predictive power of bleeding was 31.5 kPa (HR 7.7, 95% CI (3.36-17.73), p  <  .01).Conclusions: Several clinical factors including high value of transient elastography (FibroScan®), gastric varix or red sign of endoscopy, and low albumin or high bilirubin values after 3 months of Kasai operation can be useful in predicting variceal bleeding in patients with biliary atresia.