Lung Cancer Screening in Greece: A Modelling Study to Estimate the Impact on Lung Cancer Life Years.

(1) Background: Lung cancer causes a substantial epidemiological burden in Greece. Yet, no formal national lung cancer screening program has been introduced to date. This study modeled the impact on lung cancer life years (LCLY) of a hypothetical scenario of comprehensive screening for lung cancer with low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) of the high-risk population in Greece, as defined by the US Preventive Services Taskforce, would be screened and linked to care (SLTC) for lung cancer versus the current scenario of background (opportunistic) screening only; (2) Methods: A stochastic model was built to monitor a hypothetical cohort of 100,000 high-risk men and women as they transitioned between health states (without cancer, with cancer, alive, dead) over 5 years. Transition probabilities were based on clinical expert opinion. Cancer cases, cancer-related deaths, and LCLYs lost were modeled in current and hypothetical scenarios. The difference in outcomes between the two scenarios was calculated. 150 iterations of simulation scenarios were conducted for 100,000 persons; (3) Results: Increasing SLTC to a hypothetical 100% of eligible high-risk people in Greece leads to a statistically significant reduction in deaths and in total years lost due to lung cancer, when compared with the current SLTC paradigm. Over 5 years, the model predicted a difference of 339 deaths and 944 lost years between the hypothetical and current scenario. More specifically, the hypothetical scenario led to fewer deaths (-24.56%, p < 0.001) and fewer life years lost (-31.01%, p < 0.001). It also led to a shift to lower-stage cancers at the time of diagnosis; (4) Conclusions: Our study suggests that applying a 100% screening strategy amongst high-risk adults aged 50-80, would result in additional averted deaths and LCLYs gained over 5 years in Greece.