COVID-19 seeding time and doubling time model: an early epidemic risk assessment tool.
Lei ZhouJiang-Mei LiuXiao-Ping DongJennifer M McGooganZun-You WuPublished in: Infectious diseases of poverty (2020)
Our main finding is that the ST/DT Model can be used to produce meaningful assessments of the risk of escalation in country/territory-level COVID-19 epidemics using only case reporting data. Our model can help support timely, decisive action at the national level as leaders and other decision makers face of the serious public health threat that is COVID-19.