Modelling the Potential Risk of Infection Associated with Listeria monocytogenes in Irrigation Water and Agricultural Soil in Two District Municipalities in South Africa.

Listeria monocytogenes ( L. monocytogenes ) is the etiologic agent of listeriosis which significantly affects immunocompromised individuals. The potential risk of infection attributed to L. monocytogenes in irrigation water and agricultural soil, which are key transmission pathways of microbial hazards to the human population, was evaluated using the quantitative microbial risk assessment modelling. A Monte Carlo simulation with 10,000 iterations was used to characterize the risks. High counts of L. monocytogenes in irrigation water (mean: 11.96 × 10 2 CFU/100 mL; range: 0.00 to 56.67 × 10 2 CFU/100 mL) and agricultural soil samples (mean: 19.64 × 10 2 CFU/g; range: 1.33 × 10 2 to 62.33 × 10 2 CFU/g) were documented. Consequently, a high annual infection risk of 5.50 × 10 -2 (0.00 to 48.30 × 10 -2 ), 54.50 × 10 -2 (9.10 × 10 -3 to 1.00) and 70.50 × 10 -2 (3.60 × 10 -2 to 1.00) was observed for adults exposed to contaminated irrigation water, adults exposed to contaminated agricultural soil and children exposed to agricultural soil, respectively. This study, therefore, documents a huge public health threat attributed to the high probability of infection in humans exposed to L. monocytogenes in irrigation water and agricultural soil in Amathole and Chris Hani District Municipalities in the Eastern Cape province of South Africa.