Initial steps towards developing a predictive algorithm of disease progression for hidradenitis suppurativa (HS): results from a Cox proportional hazard regression analysis on disease progression among a cohort of 335 Danish patients with HS.

We found a disparity between factors increasing the risk of simple Disease progression and those increasing the risk of Transition to severe disease. For the latter, active smoking, BMI points > 25, active disease in 2 or ≥ 3 areas were all shown to be the clinically relevant factors that could be used to construct an algorithm that correctly predicted progression to severe HS in more than half of all instances.