Quantifying inherent predictability and spatial synchrony in the aphid vector Myzus persicae: field-scale patterns of abundance and regional forecasting error in the UK.

Field populations are unpredictable and stochastic, regardless of neonicotinoid seed treatment. This outcome presents a problem for decision-support that cannot usefully provide a single regionwide solution. Weighted permutation entropy inferred that M. persicae 12.2 m suction-trap time series had moderate to low intrinsic predictability. Early warning using a migration model tended to predict counts at lower levels than observed. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.