Development and Assessment of a Social Media-Based Construct of Firearm Ownership: Computational Derivation and Benchmark Comparison.

Our success in developing a machine learning model of firearm ownership at the individual level with limited training data as well as a state-level construct that achieves a high level of criterion validity underscores the potential of social media data for advancing gun violence research. The ownership construct is an important precursor for understanding the representativeness of and variability in outcomes that have been the focus of social media analyses in gun violence research to date, such as attitudes, opinions, policy stances, sentiments, and perspectives on gun violence and gun policy. The high criterion validity we achieved for state-level gun ownership suggests that social media data may be a useful complement to traditional sources of information on gun ownership such as survey and administrative data, especially for identifying early signals of changes in geographic patterns of gun ownership, given the immediacy of the availability of social media data, their continuous generation, and their responsiveness. These results also lend support to the possibility that other computationally derived, social media-based constructs may be derivable, which could lend additional insight into firearm behaviors that are currently not well understood. More work is needed to develop other firearms-related constructs and to assess their measurement properties.