Southwestern (SW) China is an area of active tectonism and erosion, yielding a dynamic, deeply eroded landscape that influences the genetic structure of the resident populations of plants and animals. Iron walnut (Juglans regia subsp. sigillata) is a deciduous tree species endemic to this region of China and cultivated there for its edible nuts. We sampled 36 iron walnut populations from locations throughout the species' range in SW China and genotyped a total of 765 individuals at five chloroplast DNA regions and 22 nuclear microsatellite loci. Species distribution models were produced to predict the evolution and historical biogeography of iron walnut and to estimate the impacts of climate oscillations and orographic environments on the species' demography. Our results indicated that J. regia subsp. sigillata had relatively low genetic diversity, high interpopulation genetic differentiation, and asymmetric interpopulation gene flow. Based on DIYABC analysis, we identified two lineages of J. sigillata in southwestern China. The lineages (subpopulations) diverge during the last glacial period (~1.34 Ma). Southwestern China was a glacial refuge during the last glacial period, but increasingly colder and arid climates might have fostered the fragmentation of J. regia subsp. sigillata within this refugium. Finally, we found that recent habitat fragmentation has led to a reduction in population connectivity and increased genetic differentiation by genetic drift in isolated populations. Our results support a conclusion that geological and climatic factors since the Miocene triggered the differentiation, evolutionary origin, and range shifts of J. sigillata in the studied region.