Effects of Spatial Characteristics on the Spread of the Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) in Korea.

This paper examines the effects of regional characteristics on the spread of the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) during Korea's 2016-2017 outbreak. A spatial econometric model is used to determine the effects of regional characteristics on HPAI dispersion using data from 162 counties in Korea. Results indicate the existence of spatial dependence, suggesting that the occurrence of HPAI in a county is significantly influenced by neighboring counties. We found that larger size poultry, including laying hens, breeders, and ducks are significantly associated with a greater incidence of HPAI. Among poultry, we found ducks as the greatest source of the spread of HPAI. Our findings suggest that those regions that are spatially dependent with respect to the spread of HPAI, such as counties that intensively breed ducks, should be the focus of surveillance to prevent future epidemics of HPAI.