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Clinical prediction models and the multiverse of madness.

Richard D RileyAlexander PatePaula DhimanLucinda ArcherGlen P MartinGary S Collins
Published in: BMC medicine (2023)
Instability is concerning as an individual's predicted value is used to guide their counselling, resource prioritisation, and clinical decision making. If different samples lead to different models with very different predictions for the same individual, then this should cast doubt into using a particular model for that individual. Therefore, visualising, quantifying and reporting the instability in individual-level predictions is essential when proposing a new model.
Keyphrases
  • decision making