Potential and limits of whole genome prediction of resistance to Fusarium head blight and Septoria tritici blotch in a vast Central European elite winter wheat population.

Fusarium head blight and Septoria tritici blotch resistances are complex traits and can be improved efficiently by genomic selection modeling main and epistatic effects. Enhancing the resistance against Fusarium head blight (FHB) and Septoria tritici blotch (STB) is of central importance for a sustainable wheat production. Our study is based on a large experimental data set of 2325 inbred lines genotyped with 12,642 SNP markers and phenotyped in multi-environmental trials for FHB and STB resistance as well as for plant height. Our objectives were to (1) investigate the impact of plant height on FHB and STB severity, (2) examine the potential of marker-assisted selection, and (3) study the prediction ability of genomic selection modeling main and epistatic effects. We observed low correlations between plant height and FHB (r = -0.15; P < 0.05) as well as STB severity (r = -0.17; P < 0.05) suggesting negligible morphological resistances. Cross-validation in combination with association mapping revealed absence of large effect QTL impeding an efficient pyramiding of different resistance loci through marker-assisted selection. The prediction ability of genomic selection was high amounting to 0.6 for FHB and 0.5 for STB resistance. Therefore, genomic selection is a promising tool to improve FHB and STB resistance in wheat.