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More efficient phosphorus use can avoid cropland expansion.

José Manuel MogollónAlexander F BouwmanArthur H W BeusenLuis LassalettaHans J M van GrinsvenHenk Westhoek
Published in: Nature food (2021)
Global projections indicate that approximately 500 Mha of new arable land will be required to meet crop demand by 2050. Applying a dynamic phosphorus (P) pool simulator under different socioeconomic scenarios, we find that cropland expansion can be avoided with less than 7% additional cumulative P fertilizer over 2006-2050 when comparing with cropland expansion scenarios, mostly targeted at nutrient-depleted soils of sub-Saharan Africa. Additional P fertilizer would replenish P withdrawn from crop production, thereby allowing higher productivity levels. We also show that further agronomic improvements such as those that allow for better (legacy) P use in soils could reduce both P outflows to freshwater and coastal ecosystems and the overall demand for P fertilizer.
Keyphrases
  • climate change
  • sewage sludge
  • heavy metals
  • human health
  • risk assessment
  • anaerobic digestion
  • drug delivery
  • cancer therapy
  • organic matter