Long-term thermal sensitivity of Earth's tropical forests.
Martin J P SullivanSimon L LewisKofi Affum-BaffoeCarolina Volkmer de CastilhoFlavia R C CostaAida Cuni SanchezCorneille E N EwangoWannes HubauBeatriz Schwantes MarimonAbel Monteagudo-MendozaLan QieBonaventure SonkéRodolfo Vasquez MartinezTimothy R BakerRoel J W BrienenTed R FeldpauschDavid R GalbraithManuel U GloorYadvinder MalhiShin-Ichiro AibaMiguel N AlexiadesEverton C AlmeidaEdmar Almeida de OliveiraEsteban Álvarez DávilaPatricia Alvarez LoayzaAna C AndradeSimone Aparecida VieiraLuiz Eduardo Oliveira E Cruz de AragãoAlejandro Araujo-MurakamiEric J M M AretsLuzmila ArroyoPeter AshtonGerardo A Aymard CorredorFabricio Beggiato BaccaroLindsay F BaninChristopher BaralotoPlinio Barbosa de CamargoJos BarlowJorcely BarrosoJean-François BastinSarah A BattermanHans BeeckmanSerge K BegneAmy C BennettErika BerenguerNicholas BerryLilian BlancPascal BoeckxJan BogaertDamien BonalFrans BongersMatt BradfordFrancis Q BrearleyTerry BrncicFoster BrownBenoit BurbanJosé Luís Campana CamargoWenderson CastroCarlos CéronSabina Cerruto RibeiroVictor Chama MoscosoJerome ChaveEric ChezeauxConnie J ClarkFernanda Coelho de SouzaMurray CollinsJames A ComiskeyFernando Cornejo ValverdeMassiel Corrales MedinaLola da CostaMartin DančákGreta C DargieStuart DaviesNallaret Davila CardozoThales de HaullevilleMarcelo Brilhante de MedeirosJhon Del Aguila-PasquelGéraldine DerroireAnthony Di FioreJean-Louis DoucetAurélie DourdainVincent DroissartLuisa Fernanda DuqueRomeo EkoungoulouFernando EliasTerry ErwinAdriane Esquivel MuelbertSophie FausetJoice FerreiraGerardo Flores LlampazoErnest FoliAndrew FordMartin GilpinJefferson S HallKeith C HamerAlan C HamiltonDavid J HarrisTerese B HartRadim HédlBruno HéraultRafael HerreraNiro HiguchiAnnette HladikEurídice Honorio CoronadoIsau Huamantupa-ChuquimacoWalter Huaraca HuascoKathryn J JefferyEliana M JimenezMichelle KalamandeenMarie Noël Kamdem DjuikouoElizabeth KearsleyRicardo Keichi UmetsuLip Khoon KhoTimothy J KilleenKanehiro KitayamaBente KlitgaardAlexander KochNicolas LabrièreWilliam LauranceSusan G W LauranceMiguel E LealAurora LevesleyAdriano J N LimaJanvier LisingoAline P LopesGabriela Lopez-GonzalezThomas E LovejoyJon C LovettRichard LoweWilliam E MagnussonJagoba Malumbres-OlarteÂngelo Gilberto ManzattoBen Hur MarimonAndrew R MarshallToby R MarthewsSimone Matias de Almeida ReisColin R MaycockKarina MelgaçoCasimiro MendozaFaizah MetaliVianet MihindouWilliam MillikenEdward T A MitchardPaulo S MorandiHannah L MossmanLaszlo NagyHenrique NascimentoDavid A NeillReuben NilusPercy Núñez VargasWalter PalaciosNadir Pallqui CamachoJulie PeacockColin PendryMaria Cristina Peñuela MoraGeorgia C PickavanceJohn PipolyNigel C A PitmanMaureen PlayfairLourens PoorterJohn R PoulsenAxel Dalberg PoulsenRichard PreziosiAdriana PrietoRichard B PrimackHirma Ramírez-AnguloJan ReitsmaMaxime Réjou-MéchainZorayda Restrepo CorreaThaiane Rodrigues de SousaLily Rodriguez BayonaAnand RoopsindAgustín RudasErvan RutishauserKamariah Abu SalimRafael P SalomãoJuliana SchiettiDouglas SheilRicharlly C SilvaJavier Silva EspejoCamila Silva ValeriaMarcos SilveiraMurielle Simo-DroissartMarcelo Fragomeni SimonJames SinghYahn Carlos Soto SharevaClement StahlJuliana StroppRahayu Sukmaria SukriTerry C H SunderlandMartin SvátekMichael D SwaineVarun SwamyHermann TaedoumgJoey TalbotJames TaplinDavid TaylorHans Ter SteegeJohn TerborghRaquel ThomasSean C ThomasArmando Torres-LezamaPeter UmunayLuis Valenzuela GamarraGeertje M F van der HeijdenPeter van der HoutPeter van der MeerMark van NieuwstadtHans VerbeeckRonald VernimmenAlberto VicentiniIma Célia Guimarães VieiraEsteban Alvarez DávilaJason VleminckxVincent Antoine VosOphelia WangLee J T WhiteSimon WillcockJohn T WoodsVerginia WortelKenneth YoungRoderick ZagtLise ZemaghoPieter A ZuidemaJoeri A ZwertsOliver L PhillipsPublished in: Science (New York, N.Y.) (2020)
The sensitivity of tropical forest carbon to climate is a key uncertainty in predicting global climate change. Although short-term drying and warming are known to affect forests, it is unknown if such effects translate into long-term responses. Here, we analyze 590 permanent plots measured across the tropics to derive the equilibrium climate controls on forest carbon. Maximum temperature is the most important predictor of aboveground biomass (-9.1 megagrams of carbon per hectare per degree Celsius), primarily by reducing woody productivity, and has a greater impact per °C in the hottest forests (>32.2°C). Our results nevertheless reveal greater thermal resilience than observations of short-term variation imply. To realize the long-term climate adaptation potential of tropical forests requires both protecting them and stabilizing Earth's climate.