Mendelian randomization analyses suggest a causal role for circulating GIP and IL-1RA levels in homeostatic model assessment-derived measures of β-cell function and insulin sensitivity in Africans without type 2 diabetes.

The findings of this comprehensive MR analysis indicate that circulating GIP and IL-1RA levels are causal for reduced insulin sensitivity and increased β-cell function. GIP's effect being independent of BMI suggests that circulating levels of GIP could be a promising early biomarker for T2D risk. Our MR analyses do not provide conclusive evidence for a causal role of other circulating cytokines in T2D among sub-Saharan Africans.