Rising temperatures and increasing demand challenge wheat supply in Sudan.

Climate warming poses challenges for food production at low latitudes, particularly in arid regions. Sudan, where wheat demand could triple by 2050, has the world's hottest wheat-growing environments, and observed yield declines in hot seasons are prompting the national government to prepare for a warming of 1.5-4.2 °C. Using advanced crop modelling under different climate and socioeconomic scenarios, we show that despite the use of adjusted sowing dates and existing heat-tolerant varieties, by 2050, Sudan's domestic production share may decrease from 16.0% to 4.5-12.2%. In the relatively cool northern region, yields will need to increase by 3.1-4.7% per year, at non-compounding rates, to meet demand. In the hot central and eastern regions, improvements in heat tolerance are essential, and yields must increase by 0.2-2.7% per year to keep pace with climate warming. These results indicate the potential contribution of climate change adaptation measures and provide targets for addressing the wheat supply challenge.