Global Potential Distribution of the South American Cutworm Pest Agrotis robusta (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae).

Invasive pest species can represent significant losses to the agricultural economy of a country. Assessing the potential distribution of known pest species could be an important tool to evaluate possible invasive threats globally. Agrotis robusta (Blanchard) is an endemic species of temperate areas of South America considered an important pest of seedlings of sunflower, dry bean, and potatoes. The polyphagous habit of A. robusta, along with its regional importance and history of misidentifications, makes it a species of concern for other regions of the world. In this work, we assessed the potential distribution of A. robusta with Maxent based on occurrence data and variables related to climate and soil. The bioclimate profile of the species showed a marked seasonality and medium average monthly temperature, coinciding with the temperate climate of the Köppen-Geiger classification. Other important variables related to the species distribution included average solar radiation and soil pH. Suitable conditions were identified in North America, Central America, Europe, Southern Africa, Asia, and Australia. High suitable places overlapped with some of the most important countries of production of host crops of A. robusta. Our conclusions highlight the importance of taking this species into account when importing goods from countries with the presence of A. robusta, especially for countries that are important producers of host crops.