Influence of model selection and data structure on the estimation of genetic parameters in honeybee populations.

Estimating genetic parameters of quantitative traits is a prerequisite for animal breeding. In honeybees, the genetic variance separates into queen and worker effects. However, under data paucity, parameter estimations that account for this peculiarity often yield implausible results. Consequently, simplified models that attribute all genetic contributions to either the queen (queen model) or the workers (worker model) are often used to estimate variance components in honeybees. However, the causes for estimations with the complete model (colony model) to fail and the consequences of simplified models for variance estimates are little understood. We newly developed the necessary theory to compare parameter estimates that were achieved by the colony model with those of the queen and worker models. Furthermore, we performed computer simulations to quantify the influence of model choice, estimation algorithm, true genetic parameters, rates of controlled mating, apiary sizes, and phenotype data completeness on the success of genetic parameter estimations. We found that successful estimations with the colony model were only possible if at least some of the queens mated controlled on mating stations. In that case, estimates were largely unbiased if more than 20% of the colonies had phenotype records. The simplified queen and worker models proved more stable and yielded plausible parameter estimates for almost all settings. Results obtained from these models were unbiased when mating was uncontrolled, but with controlled mating, the simplified models consistently overestimated heritabilities. This study elucidates the requirements for variance component estimation in honeybees and provides the theoretical groundwork for simplified honeybee models.