Forecasting the 2021 local burden of population alcohol-related harms using Bayesian structural time-series.

In 2020/21, alcohol-related hospital admissions are expected to increase in urban and coastal areas and decrease in areas associated with inward migration of younger people, including university towns and areas with greater ethnic diversity. Bayesian structural time-series models enable investigation of the future impacts of alcohol-related harms in population subgroups and could improve service planning and the evaluation of natural experiments on the impact of interventions to reduce the societal impacts of alcohol.