The predicted impact of tuberculosis preventive therapy: the importance of disease progression assumptions.
Tom SumnerRichard G WhitePublished in: BMC infectious diseases (2020)
The assumptions use to represent progression to disease in models are likely to influence the predicted impact of preventive therapy and other TB interventions. Modelling estimates of TB preventive therapy should consider routinely incorporating structural uncertainty, particularly in higher burden settings. Not doing so may lead to inaccurate and over confident conclusions, and sub-optimal evidence for decision making.