Projected climate change threatens significant range contraction of Cochemiea halei (Cactaceae), an island endemic, serpentine-adapted plant species at risk of extinction.

The occurrence of the species is found to be strongly correlated with ultramafic soils. The most important climate predictor for habitat suitability is annual temperature range. The species is predicted to undergo range contractions from 21% to 53%, depending on the severity and duration of exposure to climate change. The broader implications for a wide range of narrowly adapted, threatened, and endemic plant species indicate an urgent need for threat assessment based on habitat suitability and climate change modeling.