Estimation of new HIV diagnosis rates among high-risk, PrEP-eligible individuals using HIV surveillance data at the Metropolitan Statistical Area level in the United States.

We propose a model to estimate the background HIV diagnosis rate in people at risk for HIV and with a PrEP indication in US MSAs (excluding those on PrEP) using publically available surveillance data which can evaluate trends over time. Data generated using this methodology could be used by policy makers and local HIV prevention specialists to evaluate and monitor their prevention efforts for the population at risk in their communities.