Performance of maximum likelihood mixture models to estimate nursery habitat contributions to fish stocks: a case study on sea bream Sparus aurata.

ML-MM produced reliable estimates of mixing proportions and nursery-signatures under an important range of incomplete sampling and nursery-signature separation scenarios. This method failed, however, in estimating the true number of nursery sources, reflecting a pervasive issue affecting mixture models, within and beyond the ML framework. Large differences in bias and uncertainty found among cohorts were linked to differences in separation of chemical signatures among nursery habitats. Simulation approaches, such as those presented here, could be useful to evaluate sensitivity of MM results to separation and variability in nursery-signatures for other species, habitats or cohorts.