Global analysis of the seasonal abundance of the invasive pest Drosophila suzukii reveal temperature extremes determine population activity potential.

Although trap catches remain an indirect measure of infestations and must be interpreted carefully in terms of crop risk, our results should support monitoring programmes through enhanced knowledge of the climatic factors affecting D. suzukii population activity. The negative impact of high temperatures suggests that late-season management strategies focusing on manipulating crop microclimates to temperatures above 25 °C can reduce D. suzukii abundance. We show that early season abundance is modulated by climate, particularly the depth of cold extremes experienced in the preceding time interval. These associations may be further developed into early-season crop risk forecasts to support monitoring programs. © 2021 Society of Chemical Industry.