Transmission Dynamics of the COVID-19 Epidemic at the District Level in India: Prospective Observational Study.
Suman SaurabhMahendra Kumar VermaVaishali GautamNitesh KumarAkhil Dhnaesh GoelManoj Kumar GuptaPankaj BhardwajSanjeev MisraPublished in: JMIR public health and surveillance (2020)
The projected transmission reductions indicate that strengthening control measures could lead to proportionate reductions of the size of the COVID-19 epidemic. Time-dependent instantaneous R0 estimation based on the process by Jombart et al was found to be better suited for guiding COVID-19 response at the district level than overall R0 or instantaneous R0 estimation by the Wallinga and Teunis method. A data-driven approach at the local level is proposed to be useful in guiding public health strategy and surge capacity planning.