Markov Cohort State-Transition Model: A Multinomial Distribution Representation.
Rowan IskandarCassandra BernsPublished in: Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making (2022)
A Markov model simulates the average experience of a cohort of patients.Monte Carlo simulation, the standard approach for estimating the variance, is computationally expensive.A multinomial distribution provides an exact representation of a Markov model.Using the known formulas of a multinomial distribution, the mean and variance of a Markov model can be readily calculated.