The spread of Carpophilus truncatus is on the razor's edge between an outbreak and a pest invasion.

In 2019, in southern Italy (Campania) there was an outbreak of a sap beetle infesting stored walnut fruits. A monitoring activity started to assess the spread and impact of the pest in walnut orchards and in warehouses, and an integrative characterization led to identify the beetle as Carpophilus truncatus. This species has been in Europe for a long time, rare and harmless until recently. We show also that this species is the same recently recorded in other two continents, Latin America and Australia, where it is causing massive damage on walnut and almond fruits. The sharing of a mitochondrial haplotype among populations recorded on three continents suggests that a worldwide invasion might be ongoing. A Geographic Profiling approach has determined that the more virulent population was first introduced in Italy, and the climate conditions of areas where C. truncatus is currently widespread and harmful indicate that the entire walnuts world production is in jeopardy as this species could adapt to any of the main walnut and almond production areas.