Modeling the potential health impact of prospective Strep A vaccines.

The World Health Organization published the preferred product characteristics for a Group A Streptococcus (Strep A) vaccine in 2018. Based on these parameters for the age of vaccination, vaccine efficacy, duration of protection from vaccine-derived immunity, and vaccination coverage, we developed a static cohort model to estimate the projected health impact of Strep A vaccination at the global, regional, and national levels and by country-income category. We used the model to analyse six strategic scenarios. Based on Strep A vaccine introduction between 2022 and 2034 for the primary scenario, we estimated vaccination at birth for 30 vaccinated cohorts could avert 2.5 billion episodes of pharyngitis, 354 million episodes of impetigo, 1.4 million episodes of invasive disease, 24 million episodes of cellulitis, and 6 million cases of rheumatic heart disease globally. Vaccination impact in terms of burden averted per fully vaccinated individual is highest in North America for cellulitis and in Sub-Saharan Africa for rheumatic heart disease.