Prospects for observing and localizing gravitational-wave transients with Advanced LIGO, Advanced Virgo and KAGRA.
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E SmithS SomalaK SomiyaE J SonB SorazuF SorrentinoH SotaniT SouradeepE SowellA P SpencerA K SrivastavaV SrivastavaK StaatsC StachieM StandkeD A SteerM SteinkeJ SteinlechnerS SteinlechnerD SteinmeyerS P StevensonD StocksR StoneD J StopsK A StrainG StrattaS E StriginA StrunkR SturaniA L StuverV SudhirR SugimotoT Z SummerscalesL SunS SunilJ SureshP J SuttonTakamasa SuzukiToshikazu SuzukiB L SwinkelsM J SzczepańczykM TaccaH TagoshiS C TaitH TakahashiR TakahashiA TakamoriS TakanoH TakedaM TakedaC TalbotD TalukderH TanakaKazuyuki TanakaKenta TanakaTaiki TanakaTakahiro TanakaS TaniokaD B TannerM TápaiE N Tapia San MartinA TaracchiniJ D TassonR TaylorS TeladaF ThiesM ThomasP ThomasS R ThondapuK A ThorneE ThraneShubhanshu TiwariSrishti TiwariV TiwariK TolandT TomaruY TomigamiT TomuraM TonelliZ TornasiA Torres-FornéC I TorrieD TöyräF TravassoG TraylorM C TringaliA TrovatoL TrozzoR TrudeauK W TsangT T L TsangM TseR TsoK TsubonoS TsuchidaL TsukadaD TsunaT TsuzukiD TuyenbayevN UchikataT UchiyamaA UedaT UeharaK UenoG UeshimaD UgoliniC S UnnikrishnanF UraguchiA L UrbanT UshibaS A UsmanH VahlbruchG VajenteG ValdesN van BakelM van BeuzekomJ F J van den BrandC Van Den BroeckD C Vander-HydeL van der SchaafJ V van HeijningenM H P M van PuttenA A van VeggelM VardaroV VarmaS VassM VasúthA VecchioG VedovatoJ VeitchP J VeitchK VenkateswaraG VenugopalanD VerkindtF VetranoA ViceréA D VietsD J VineJ-Y VinetS VitaleFrancisco Hernandez VivancoT VoH VoccaC VorvickS P VyatchaninA R WadeL E WadeM WadeR WaletM WalkerL WallaceS WalshG WangH WangJ WangJ Z WangW H WangY F WangR L WardZ A WardenJ WarnerM WasJ WatchiB WeaverL-W WeiM WeinertA J WeinsteinR WeissF WellmannL WenE K WesselP WeßelsJ W WesthouseK WetteJ T WhelanB F WhitingC WhittleD M WilkenD WilliamsA R WilliamsonJ L WillisB WillkeM H WimmerW WinklerC C WipfH WittelG WoanJ WoehlerJ K WoffordJ WordenJ L WrightC M WuD S WuH C WuS R WuD M WysockiL XiaoW R XuT YamadaH YamamotoKazuhiro YamamotoKohei YamamotoT YamamotoC C YanceyL YangM J YapM YazbackD W YeelesK YokogawaJ YokoyamaT YokozawaT YoshiokaHang YuHaocun YuS H R YuenH YuzuriharaM YvertA K ZadrożnyM ZanolinS ZeidlerT ZelenovaJ-P ZendriM ZevinJ ZhangL ZhangT ZhangC ZhaoY ZhaoM ZhouZ ZhouX J ZhuZ H ZhuA B ZimmermanM E ZuckerJ Zweizignull nullPublished in: Living reviews in relativity (2020)
We present our current best estimate of the plausible observing scenarios for the Advanced LIGO, Advanced Virgo and KAGRA gravitational-wave detectors over the next several years, with the intention of providing information to facilitate planning for multi-messenger astronomy with gravitational waves. We estimate the sensitivity of the network to transient gravitational-wave signals for the third (O3), fourth (O4) and fifth observing (O5) runs, including the planned upgrades of the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo detectors. We study the capability of the network to determine the sky location of the source for gravitational-wave signals from the inspiral of binary systems of compact objects, that is binary neutron star, neutron star-black hole, and binary black hole systems. The ability to localize the sources is given as a sky-area probability, luminosity distance, and comoving volume. The median sky localization area (90% credible region) is expected to be a few hundreds of square degrees for all types of binary systems during O3 with the Advanced LIGO and Virgo (HLV) network. The median sky localization area will improve to a few tens of square degrees during O4 with the Advanced LIGO, Virgo, and KAGRA (HLVK) network. During O3, the median localization volume (90% credible region) is expected to be on the order of 10 5 , 10 6 , 10 7 Mpc 3 for binary neutron star, neutron star-black hole, and binary black hole systems, respectively. The localization volume in O4 is expected to be about a factor two smaller than in O3. We predict a detection count of 1 - 1 + 12 ( 10 - 10 + 52 ) for binary neutron star mergers, of 0 - 0 + 19 ( 1 - 1 + 91 ) for neutron star-black hole mergers, and 17 - 11 + 22 ( 79 - 44 + 89 ) for binary black hole mergers in a one-calendar-year observing run of the HLV network during O3 (HLVK network during O4). We evaluate sensitivity and localization expectations for unmodeled signal searches, including the search for intermediate mass black hole binary mergers.