Novel Indicator to Ascertain the Status and Trend of COVID-19 Spread: Modeling Study.

Published in: Journal of medical Internet research (2020)

The approximate linear decrease of the K value indicates that the COVID-19 spread does not grow exponentially but starts to attenuate from the early stage. The K trajectory in a wide range was successfully reproduced by a phenomenological model with the constant attenuation assumption, indicating that the total number of the infected people follows the Gompertz curve. Focusing on the change in the value of K will help to improve and refine epidemiological models of COVID-19.

Keyphrases

coronavirus disease
sars cov
early stage
respiratory syndrome coronavirus
squamous cell carcinoma
radiation therapy
sentinel lymph node