Estimating the effects of lockdown timing on COVID-19 cases and deaths in England: A counterfactual modelling study.
Kellyn F ArnoldMark S GilthorpeNisreen A AlwanAlison J HeppenstallGeorgia D TomovaMartin McKeePeter W G TennantPublished in: PloS one (2022)
Our modelling supports the claim that the relatively late introduction of social distancing and lockdown measures likely increased the scale, severity, and duration of the first wave of COVID-19 in England. Our results highlight the importance of acting swiftly to minimise the spread of an infectious disease when case numbers are increasing exponentially.