Threat appraisals, neuroticism, and intrusive memories: a robust mediational approach with replication.

Background: The appraisal of a stressor substantially influences how we adapt to it. We used an experimental paradigm to test and replicate the effects of threat appraisals on subsequent intrusive memories, as well as their moderation by neuroticism. Method: In three studies (total N = 562), participants were randomly assigned to an aversive or control video and then asked to report their threat appraisals of the video. Intrusive memories were assessed at one, three, five, and seven days. We used a robust framework for testing causal mediational effects and their magnitude, including sensitivity analyses and new effect size metrics. Results: We found that threat appraisals mediated the effect of the video on intrusive memories (studies 1-3), and for people higher in neuroticism, the causal mediational pathway was stronger (study 1 and 2). Conclusions: These findings provide methodologically strong evidence that threat appraisals have causal effects on subsequent intrusive memories and that neuroticism enhances this effect, lending empirical support to appraisal theories of posttraumatic stress disorder.