Climate change influences on the potential geographic distribution of the disease vector tick Ixodes ricinus.

The present and future potential distributions of I. ricinus showed broad overlap across most of western and central Europe, and in more narrow zones in eastern and northern Europe, and North Africa. Potential expansions were observed in northern and eastern Europe. These results indicate that I. ricinus populations could emerge in areas in which they are currently lacking, posing increased risks to human health in those areas. However, the future of I. ricinus ticks in some important regions such the Mediterranean was unclear owing to high uncertainty in model predictions.