Principal investigators over-optimistically forecast scientific and operational outcomes for clinical trials.

Daniel M BenjaminSpencer P HeyAmanda MacPhersonYasmina HachemKara S SmithSean X ZhangSandy WongSamantha DolterDavid R Mandel Jonathan Kimmelman

Published in: PloS one (2022)

PIs showed overconfidence in favorable outcomes and exhibited limited skill in predicting scientific or operational outcomes for their own trials. They nevertheless showed modest ability to discriminate between positive and non-positive trial outcomes. Low survey response rates may limit generalizability.

Keyphrases

clinical trial
type diabetes
phase iii
weight loss
insulin resistance
placebo controlled